The Dutch housing shortage has hit 410,000 homes. Here is what it means for expats, first-time buyers, and your mortgage plans.
If you are looking to buy or rent a home in the Netherlands right now, you have probably already noticed: it is tough out there. But a recent market report has put a staggering number on just how tough things have become. The country is now short approximately 410,000 homes. Yes, you read that right, over four hundred thousand.
For expats, first-time buyers, and anyone navigating the Dutch housing market, this is not just a statistic. It directly affects how much you will pay, how long you will search, and what kind of hypotheekadvies (mortgage advice) you will need to make smart decisions. Let us break down what is happening and, more importantly, what it means for you.
You might be wondering: how did we get here? Is the government not building new homes?
They are, just not fast enough. Last year, the number of households in the Netherlands grew by more than 80,000. But the housing stock only increased by around 70,000. That gap of roughly 10,000 homes may seem small on its own, but it adds up year after year.
The result? The housing deficit now sits at about 4.8% of the total housing supply. The Dutch government had set a goal of reducing that to 2% by 2031, but independent analysts believe the actual figure will still be close to 3.9% by then.
The national ambition has been to add 100,000 new homes per year. Unfortunately, that target has been missed for several years running. In fact, for the third consecutive year, fewer homes were built than planned.
Construction delays, rising material costs, labor shortages, and lengthy permit procedures are all contributing factors. For anyone hoping the market would ease up soon, this is a reality check.
Here is something many people overlook: the Netherlands is also failing to build enough suitable housing for senior citizens. The idea behind building for seniors is that when older residents move into age-appropriate homes, their current properties become available for families and younger buyers. This doorstroming (housing chain movement) is a key part of the government strategy.
But right now, only about 10% of the annual building targets for senior housing are being met. That bottleneck has a ripple effect throughout the entire market, making it harder for everyone, including starters, to find a place.
If you are currently renting or considering renting before buying, brace yourself. The rental market is under serious pressure too.
A large number of property investors and housing corporations are planning to sell off rental properties rather than keep them on the market. Why? Stricter regulations under the Wet betaalbare huur (Affordable Rent Act) have made it increasingly difficult for landlords to earn a reasonable return on rental properties, especially in the mid-range segment.
As rental supply shrinks and demand stays high, the outcome is predictable: rents in the vrije sector (free market rental sector) will continue to climb. Analysts are calling on the government to support investment in new rental construction, but meaningful change will take time.
For expats who often start out renting when they first move to the Netherlands, this trend makes it even more important to plan your transition to homeownership carefully. Buying sooner rather than later could save you money in the long run, but only if the numbers make sense for your personal situation.
Let us get practical. If you are a first-time buyer, or een eerste huis kopen, as the Dutch say, here is how this housing shortage affects you directly.
With more people chasing fewer available homes, expect bidding wars to continue, especially in popular cities like Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Utrecht, and The Hague. Being well-prepared with a mortgage pre-approval can give you a significant advantage.
Despite the competitive market, the hypotheekregels Nederland (Dutch mortgage regulations) are actually designed to protect you. There are strict rules around how much you can borrow based on your income, and the maximum loan-to-value ratio ensures you are not overextending yourself. These guardrails exist for a reason, they keep you from buying more house than you can afford, even when emotions run high during a bidding war.
Do not wait until you have found your dream home to start thinking about financing. Get in touch with an onafhankelijk hypotheekadviseur (independent mortgage advisor) well in advance. They can help you understand exactly what you can borrow, which mortgage types suit your situation, and how to structure your offer when the time comes.
The Dutch housing market can feel especially confusing when you did not grow up here. Different rules, different terminology, and a competitive environment can be overwhelming. But here is the good news: as an expat, you absolutely can buy a home in the Netherlands.
If you benefit from the 30% ruling, keep in mind that mortgage lenders may calculate your borrowing capacity differently. Some lenders will use your full salary, while others may only count the taxable portion. An experienced hypotheek voor expats (mortgage for expats) specialist can help you navigate this and find lenders who offer the best terms for your specific situation.
From the koopovereenkomst (purchase agreement) to the notaris (notary), the Dutch homebuying process involves a lot of steps and a lot of paperwork. Working with an advisor who speaks your language and understands your background can make the entire experience less stressful and more transparent.
If you already own a home, the housing shortage is actually working in your favor in terms of property value. With demand consistently outpacing supply, home values are likely to remain strong.
However, if you are thinking about moving, whether upsizing, downsizing, or relocating — the same competitive dynamics apply to you. Selling might be easy, but buying your next home could be a challenge.
Consider getting updated mortgage advice before making any moves. Your current mortgage terms, remaining debt, and the equity you have built up all play a role in what your next steps should look like.
Here is a quick recap of the key takeaways. The Netherlands is short over 410,000 homes, and that number is likely to grow before it shrinks. Government building targets keep being missed, and the shortage of senior housing is creating a bottleneck across the entire market. Rental prices in the free sector are expected to keep rising as investors pull out. For buyers, competition will remain intense, but Dutch mortgage regulations are there to protect you. Getting professional mortgage advice early gives you a clear advantage, whether you are a first-time buyer, an expat, or looking to move.
In a market this competitive, having the right information and the right guidance makes all the difference. Whether you are just starting to explore your options or you are ready to make an offer, understanding your financial position is the most important first step.
At Financial Consultancy Holland, we provide independent, personal mortgage advice tailored to your unique situation. Whether you are buying your eerste huis, navigating the market as an expat, or rethinking your current mortgage, we are here to help you make a confident, well-informed decision.
Feel free to reach out, we are happy to talk through your options, answer your questions, and help you find the path that works best for you.
